College Football Week 11: Key Showdowns and Playoff Implications
Week 11 of the 2024 college football season is filled with high-stakes matchups that could have a significant impact on the College Football Playoff (CFP) picture. With several teams in the hunt for a playoff berth and others fighting for bowl eligibility, every game is crucial as we approach the final stretch. Here’s a closer look at the top games this weekend, each with its own set of playoff implications.
#8 Indiana (9-0) vs. Michigan (5-4) – 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Indiana has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, maintaining an undefeated record heading into Week 11 under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers, currently ranked No. 8 in the CFP rankings, have been dominant on both sides of the ball, particularly with a high-scoring offense that averages 46.6 points per game. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been efficient, and the team’s balanced offense has been the driving force behind their perfect record. However, their schedule has been relatively light, and this game against a Michigan team that’s had a disappointing 5-4 season is their first true test of the year.
Michigan’s Struggles:
- Disappointing season: Michigan is currently sitting at 5-4 and is desperately fighting for bowl eligibility. This year has been a tough one for the Wolverines, particularly with struggles on offense. Quarterback Jadyn Davis has taken over as the starter but has shown inconsistency and struggles with game management. The offense has been unable to consistently keep up with its opponents, and the defense, though solid, has had difficulty holding teams back in big moments.
- Playoff hopes dashed: Michigan’s slim chances of making the CFP are already all but gone, and now their focus is on securing bowl eligibility and avoiding a disappointing finish.
The Outlook: Indiana has an excellent opportunity to make a statement win here by beating a name-brand opponent like Michigan. The Hoosiers’ high-powered offense faces off against a solid Michigan defense that allows just 23.3 points per game, but Michigan’s struggles on offense make it hard to see how they can keep pace with Indiana’s scoring. If Indiana can control the tempo and continue to play disciplined football, they should be able to stay undefeated and further bolster their playoff case.
Prediction: Indiana -14
#2 Georgia (9-0) vs. #16 Ole Miss (8-1) – 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Georgia enters Week 11 as the No. 2 team in the country and remains undefeated. They are one of the favorites to make the CFP and are seeking to continue their dominance in the SEC. The Bulldogs have one of the most elite defenses in college football, allowing just 12.7 points per game, and they have been able to lean on their defense to win games, especially as quarterback Carson Beck has been up and down in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss, led by head coach Lane Kiffin, is riding high after a 63-31 victory over Arkansas in Week 10. The Rebels’ offense, powered by quarterback Jaxson Dart and a strong group of playmakers, has been one of the most potent in the nation. Ole Miss is looking for that signature win to boost their playoff resume and prove they belong in the conversation for a spot in the CFP.
Georgia’s Strengths:
- Elite defense: Georgia’s defense has been suffocating all season, and they are perfectly capable of shutting down Ole Miss’ high-powered offense if they can pressure Dart and limit explosive plays.
- Running game: Georgia has been able to lean on its run game, with Trevor Etienne and others providing consistent yardage, making life easier for Beck.
Ole Miss’ Strengths:
- High-powered offense: The Rebels have one of the best offenses in the country, averaging over 500 yards per game. Dart has shown the ability to lead this explosive unit, and Ole Miss’ ability to stress Georgia’s defense could be the key to pulling off an upset.
- Confidence: Coming off a big win against Arkansas, Ole Miss is playing with confidence and could catch Georgia off guard if the Bulldogs’ offense continues to struggle.
The Outlook: This is a classic matchup of strength vs. strength: Georgia’s elite defense vs. Ole Miss’ explosive offense. If Georgia can slow down the Rebels’ passing game and take control of the tempo, they should be able to keep Ole Miss at bay. However, Ole Miss has the offensive firepower to keep this one close, especially if Jaxson Dart gets hot early. With both teams having playoff aspirations, this is a must-watch game.
Prediction: We think Ole Miss could win this one. But, we are going with Georgia -2.5
Washington (5-4) at #18 Penn State (7-2) – 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Washington, sitting at 5-4 on the season, has struggled to maintain consistency. Their high-powered offense, led by quarterback Will Rogers, is still a major threat, but they’ve faltered against tough competition. Rogers’ passing game remains one of the best in college football, though the Huskies have struggled defensively and against stronger opponents.
Meanwhile, Penn State is 7-2 and looking to stay in contention for a New Year’s Six bowl game. Their defense is solid, but the Nittany Lions have been exposed by high-powered offenses this season, with losses to Ohio State and Michigan. Penn State will look to limit Rogers and keep Washington’s offense under control to play spoiler.
Washington’s Strengths:
- Explosive offense: Despite their struggles, Washington’s passing game remains among the best in the country. Will Rogers and his receivers, led by Denzel Boston who leads the Big Ten and is No. 4 in FBS with nine touchdown receptions, have the ability to score quickly.
- Balanced offense: While they are pass-heavy, Washington has a competent run game that can help keep defenses honest.
Penn State’s Strengths:
- Defensive front: Penn State has one of the best defensive lines in the country. If they can pressure Mayfield and limit the deep ball, they’ll be in good shape.
- Special teams: Penn State has had solid special teams play this season, which could be crucial in a tight game.
The Outlook: This is a big test for both teams. Washington’s offense is capable of explosive plays, but Penn State’s defense could prove difficult to overcome if they can get pressure on Will Rogers and limit the Huskies’ big plays. With both teams looking to boost their postseason stock, this one could be a hard-fought battle.
Prediction: Penn State -4
Alabama (7-2) vs. LSU (7-2) – 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Another SEC West showdown, Alabama vs. LSU is crucial for both teams in their bid for the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. Alabama, though a solid team, has shown vulnerabilities this year, while LSU has been wildly inconsistent. The performance of Garrett Nussmeier, LSU’s quarterback, will likely determine the outcome of this game.
Alabama’s Strengths:
- Dynamic quarterback: Jalen Milroe has been the engine of the Alabama offense, both in the air and on the ground. If Milroe can produce another big game—especially with his legs—it could be the difference in this one.
- Defensive line pressure: Alabama’s defense has a strong front that can disrupt LSU’s rhythm, particularly on the line of scrimmage. If Milroe and the offense can get a lead, the pressure will mount on Nussmeier to respond.
LSU’s Challenges:
- Inconsistent quarterback play: Nussmeier has been up-and-down this season, and his performance in this game will be critical. If he continues to struggle with turnovers or failing to capitalize on big plays, LSU will have a tough time keeping pace with Alabama.
- Defensive weaknesses: While LSU has talent, their defense has shown holes, particularly in stopping the run. Alabama will likely try to establish the ground game early, forcing LSU to load the box, which could open up passing lanes for Milroe.
The Outlook: This is a pivotal game for both teams. Alabama, despite being ranked ahead of LSU, has not been as dominant as in previous years, and LSU has a chance to prove it belongs in the SEC title picture with a win here. Alabama’s ability to control the line of scrimmage and make plays in the passing game could be the difference, but LSU has the offensive firepower to keep this one close.
Prediction: Alabama -3
Florida (5-4) vs. No. 5 Texas (8-1) – Noon ET (ABC)
Texas (8-1) is looking to keep its playoff hopes alive with a dominant win over Florida (5-4). The Longhorns, led by Quinn Ewers and a tough defense, are in the hunt for a top-four CFP spot and can’t afford a slip-up against the Gators. Florida is making a quarterback change, with Aidan Warner starting for the first time, and will need to rely on its running game and defense to keep pace. However, Texas’ elite defense and high-powered offense, averaging nearly 38 points per game, will be a significant challenge for the Gators.
Key Matchup: Texas’ pass rush against Florida’s untested quarterback, Warner. If Texas can pressure him, the Gators will struggle to score.
Prediction: Texas 38, Florida 13. Texas covers the spread and solidifies its playoff position with a comfortable victory.
Other Notable Games
#23 Colorado (7-2) at Texas Tech (4-5) – 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1)
- Colorado’s surprising season: After an up-and-down start, Colorado is looking for their eighth win of the season as they continue their surprise journey. They face a Texas Tech team that is still fighting for bowl eligibility.
Colorado, under the leadership of head coach Deion Sanders, has surprised many with their 7-2 record. The Buffaloes have been propelled by their high-octane offense and improved defense. After a bye week, they’re looking to solidify their position in the Big 12 title race.Texas Tech, at 4-5, is fighting for bowl eligibility. The Red Raiders are coming off a big upset win over Iowa State and hope to carry that momentum into this crucial matchup. Their defense has struggled this season, but their offense has shown flashes of brilliance.
Colorado’s Strengths:
- Dynamic offense: Led by quarterback Shedeur Sanders and two-way star Travis Hunter, Colorado’s offense can score quickly and often.
- Improved defense: The Buffaloes’ defense has made significant strides since last season, allowing just 22 points per game.
Texas Tech’s Strengths:
- Home field advantage: The Red Raiders play well in Lubbock and will have a raucous crowd behind them.
- Running game: Led by Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech’s ground attack has been a consistent bright spot this season.
The Outlook: This game has major implications for both teams. Colorado is looking to stay in the Big 12 title hunt, while Texas Tech needs a win to keep their bowl hopes alive. The Buffaloes’ explosive offense will be tested by Texas Tech’s defense, which has struggled this year. However, the Red Raiders’ home field advantage could play a factor in keeping this game close.
Prediction: Colorado -4.5
The game is expected to be a high-scoring affair, with both teams capable of putting up points. Colorado’s balanced attack and improved defense give them the edge, but Texas Tech’s desperation for a win and home field advantage could make this a closer game than the spread suggests.
Purdue (2-7) at #1 Ohio State (9-0) – 12:00 p.m. ET (Peacock)
- Ohio State’s dominance: With a No. 1 ranking and undefeated season on the line, Ohio State must avoid the upset bug against Purdue, which has had a rough season. However, any slip-up could jeopardize their position at the top of the rankings.
Conclusion
This week’s slate of games is loaded with playoff implications. The stakes are high, and upsets are always a possibility in college football, so expect plenty of drama as the playoff race begins to narrow in the final weeks of the regular season.
Update After Wild Weekend
CFB Fox closes the loop on the upsets that happened!
